What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Toulouse lead in both underlying performance and recent points.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Marseille -0.83, Toulouse +0.97.
- Points per game over the last five: Marseille 1.20, Toulouse 1.60.
- Attack: Marseille xG per match 1.85, 13.0 shots, 3.4 big chances created; Toulouse xG per match 2.12, 14.5 shots, 2.8 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Marseille 2.68, Toulouse 1.15; shots on target faced 11.4 vs 6.8, big chances faced 4.0 vs 0.8.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Big chances created per match
3.4
vs 2.8
· Edge 19.1%
Shots on target per match
7.8
vs 7.8
· Edge 0.6%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Big chances faced per match
0.8
vs 4.0
· Edge 81.2%
xGA per match
1.15
vs 2.68
· Edge 57.3%
Shots on target faced per match
6.8
vs 11.4
· Edge 40.8%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Marseille
|
Metric |
Toulouse
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.20 | Points per game | 1.60 |
| 2.00 | Goals per match | 2.00 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded per match | 1.40 |
| 1.01 | Expected points per game | 2.08 |
| Attack | ||
| 1.85 | xG per match | 2.12 |
| 13.0 | Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 14.5 |
| 7.8 | Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 7.8 |
| 3.4 | Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 2.8 |
| 54.6% | Possession 5 / 4 matches with data | 50.5% |
| 8.2 | Deep completions per match | 8.0 |
| Defence | ||
| 2.68 | xGA per match | 1.15 |
| 19.0 | Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 11.8 |
| 11.4 | Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 6.8 |
| 4.0 | Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 0.8 |
| 10.0 | Deep completions allowed per match | 5.6 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| — | Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| — | Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| 22.8 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 25.8 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Marseille 2
- Derek Cornelius Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Injury Doubtful
Toulouse
No published absences in the latest snapshot.
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.