What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
AC Milan lead in both underlying performance and recent points.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): AC Milan +0.34, Bologna -0.44.
- Points per game over the last five: AC Milan 1.80, Bologna 1.00.
- Attack: AC Milan xG per match 1.84, 10.2 shots, 3.0 big chances created; Bologna xG per match 1.53, 11.8 shots, 3.0 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match AC Milan 1.51, Bologna 1.97; shots on target faced 6.2 vs 11.2, big chances faced 2.4 vs 3.8.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Shots on target faced per match
6.2
vs 11.2
· Edge 44.9%
Points per game
1.80
vs 1.00
· Edge 44.4%
Goals per match
2.00
vs 1.20
· Edge 40.0%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Shots per match
11.8
vs 10.2
· Edge 13.2%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
AC Milan
|
Metric |
Bologna
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.80 | Points per game | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals per match | 1.20 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per match | 1.60 |
| 1.59 | Expected points per game | 1.14 |
| Attack | ||
| 1.84 | xG per match | 1.53 |
| 10.2 | Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 11.8 |
| 7.8 | Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 6.8 |
| 3.0 | Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 3.0 |
| 60.2% | Possession 5 / 4 matches with data | 45.5% |
| 5.6 | Deep completions per match | 4.4 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.51 | xGA per match | 1.97 |
| 10.0 | Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 16.2 |
| 6.2 | Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 11.2 |
| 2.4 | Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 3.8 |
| 4.8 | Deep completions allowed per match | 10.0 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| — | Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| — | Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| 17.2 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 17.6 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
AC Milan 4
- Alexis Saelemaekers Injury Expected back mid January 2027
- Gonçalo Ramos Injury Doubtful
- Matteo Gabbia Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Samuel Chukwueze Injury Doubtful
Bologna 3
- Emil Holm Injury Expected back late February 2027
- Riccardo Orsolini Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Roberto Piccoli Injury Expected back early November 2026
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.