Aston Villa's results have picked up
Is the uptick sustainable?
Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 0.33 to 2.33 (+600%); the previous-season baseline is 1.71; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, points per game moved 0.33 → 2.33; goal difference per game -0.67 → 0.67. Shots per game moved 9.00 → 17.50; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.95 goals per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.33 | 2.33 | +2.0 | +600.0% |
| Goals per game | 0.33 | 2.0 | +1.67 | +500.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.67 | 0.67 | +1.33 | +200.0% |
| Expected points per game | 0.86 | 1.79 | +0.93 | +107.2% |
| xG per game | 1.0 | 1.88 | +0.88 | +87.3% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.0 | 1.33 | +0.33 | +33.3% |
| xGA per game | 1.71 | 1.31 | -0.4 | -23.5% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 9.00 → 17.50; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.95 goals per game.
|
9.0 → 17.5
shots per game
|
+94.4% | +0.95 | 81% |
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.67 → -0.46; finishing adds +0.21 goals per game.
|
-0.67 → -0.46
goals above expected per game
|
+31.2% | +0.21 | 18% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.11 → 0.11; at the current shot volume this adds +0.01 goals per game.
|
0.11 → 0.11
expected goals per shot
|
+0.6% | +0.01 | 1% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.71 → +0.10; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.61 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.68, opponent on-target quality +0.07.
|
0.71 → 0.1
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-85.9% | -0.61 | 37% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.13 → 0.07; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.82 per game.
|
0.13 → 0.07
expected goals per shot faced
|
-42.8% | +0.82 | 50% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 13.33 → 15.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.21 per game.
|
13.33 → 15.0
shots faced per game
|
+12.5% | -0.21 | 13% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
0.25 | -0.25 | -0.5 | -200.0% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.33 | 3.0 | +1.67 | +125.1% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.94 | 1.91 | +0.97 | +103.5% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -7% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.1 | 0.04 | -0.06 | -61.1% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.67 | 9.33 | +2.67 | +40.0% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
6.67 | 9.0 | +2.33 | +35.0% |
|
Sprints
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
101.33 | 136.5 | +35.17 | +34.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
14.33 | 18.0 | +3.67 | +25.6% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
55.67 | 51.0 | -4.67 | -8.4% |
|
Distance covered
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
112.04 | 114.87 | +2.83 | +2.5% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; running is context only and did not decide the main factor.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.33 | 0.33 | +600% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 1.31 | 1.71 | -24% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.31 | 1.71 | -24% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 1.45 xG created this season, versus 1.57 in the previous 3.
- 2.00 goals scored against 1.88 expected over the last 3 (difference +0.12).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (349 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.