Paderborn's attacking output has jumped
Can {name} keep it going?
Over the last 3 matches xG per match moved from 0.58 to 1.60 (+177%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, expected goals per game moved 0.58 → 1.60. Expected goals per shot moved 0.05 → 0.10; at the current shot volume this adds +0.78 goals per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.33 | 1.33 | +1.0 | +300.0% |
| xG per game | 0.58 | 1.6 | +1.02 | +176.9% |
| Goal difference per game | -1.33 | 0.0 | +1.33 | +100.0% |
| Expected points per game | 0.59 | 0.94 | +0.35 | +58.2% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | +0.33 | +25.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.96 | 2.31 | +0.35 | +18.1% |
| Goals per game | 0.0 | 1.67 | +1.67 | — |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.58 → +0.07; finishing adds +0.64 goals per game.
|
-0.58 → 0.07
goals above expected per game
|
+111.3% | +0.64 | 39% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.05 → 0.10; at the current shot volume this adds +0.78 goals per game.
|
0.05 → 0.1
expected goals per shot
|
+96.1% | +0.79 | 47% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 11.33 → 16.00; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.24 goals per game.
|
11.33 → 16.0
shots per game
|
+41.2% | +0.24 | 14% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 17.00 → 19.67; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.31 per game.
|
17.0 → 19.67
shots faced per game
|
+15.7% | -0.31 | 82% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.62 → +0.64; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.02 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.29, opponent on-target quality +0.31.
|
0.62 → 0.64
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+3.3% | +0.02 | 6% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.12 → 0.12; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.05 per game.
|
0.12 → 0.12
expected goals per shot faced
|
+2.1% | -0.05 | 13% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
0.67 | 3.0 | +2.33 | +349.8% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +24% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.11 | 0.36 | +0.25 | +219.6% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.67 | 19.33 | +12.67 | +190.0% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
0.93 | -0.15 | -1.08 | -116.4% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.55 | 0.9 | +0.35 | +63.2% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
5.33 | 6.67 | +1.33 | +25.0% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
51.0 | 41.67 | -9.33 | -18.3% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
20.67 | 21.0 | +0.33 | +1.6% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.6 | 0.58 | +177% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 2.06 | 1.96 | +5% |
| Goals per match | 1.67 | 0.0 | +0% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 1.89 xG created this season, versus 2.11 in the previous 3.
- 1.67 goals scored against 1.60 expected over the last 3 (difference +0.07).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (74 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.