Sunderland's results have dipped
How deep does the dip go?
Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, points per game moved 1.33 → 0.00; goal difference per game -0.33 → -2.00. Shots faced per game moved 11.33 → 19.33; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -1.08 per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal difference per game | -0.33 | -2.0 | -1.67 | -500.0% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.0 | 3.0 | +2.0 | +200.0% |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.0 | -1.33 | -100.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.53 | 2.9 | +1.37 | +89.1% |
| Expected points per game | 1.69 | 0.8 | -0.88 | -52.4% |
| Goals per game | 0.67 | 1.0 | +0.33 | +50.0% |
| xG per game | 1.93 | 1.36 | -0.57 | -29.7% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -1.26 → -0.36; finishing adds +0.91 goals per game.
|
-1.26 → -0.36
goals above expected per game
|
+71.7% | +0.91 | 61% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.15 → 0.13; at the current shot volume this adds -0.27 goals per game.
|
0.15 → 0.13
expected goals per shot
|
-16.5% | -0.27 | 18% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 12.67 → 10.67; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.30 goals per game.
|
12.67 → 10.67
shots per game
|
-15.8% | -0.3 | 21% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.53 → -0.10; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.63 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.83, opponent on-target quality +0.20.
|
0.53 → -0.1
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-118.9% | -0.63 | 32% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 11.33 → 19.33; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -1.08 per game.
|
11.33 → 19.33
shots faced per game
|
+70.6% | -1.08 | 54% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.14 → 0.15; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.28 per game.
|
0.14 → 0.15
expected goals per shot faced
|
+10.9% | -0.28 | 14% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is a harder schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
0.34 | 0.94 | +0.59 | +172.7% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.53 | 0.0 | -0.53 | -100.0% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -57% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.4 | 0.72 | +0.33 | +82.8% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
5.33 | 9.33 | +4.0 | +75.0% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
7.67 | 4.33 | -3.33 | -43.5% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.93 | 0.75 | -0.18 | -19.4% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
21.67 | 17.67 | -4.0 | -18.5% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
3.33 | 3.0 | -0.33 | -10.0% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
45.0 | 47.33 | +2.33 | +5.2% |
|
Distance covered
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
115.12 | 112.66 | -2.46 | -2.1% |
|
Sprints
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
110.67 | 109.67 | -1.0 | -0.9% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.33 | 0.33 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.0 | 1.33 | -100% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 2.9 | 1.53 | +89% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.36 | 1.42 | -4% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 2.9 | 1.28 | +127% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 9.33 | 5.33 | +75% |
| Goals per match | 1.0 | 0.67 | +50% |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.0 | 1.0 | +200% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 2.27 xG created this season, versus 1.78 in the previous 3; a step up in opposition quality may be a factor.
- 1.00 goals scored against 1.36 expected over the last 3 (difference -0.36).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (159 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.