Aston Villa vs Manchester City: what the data says
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Manchester City lead in both underlying performance and recent points.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Aston Villa +0.16, Manchester City +0.78.
- Points per game over the last five: Aston Villa 1.60, Manchester City 3.00.
- Attack: Aston Villa xG per match 1.67, 13.8 shots, 2.5 big chances created; Manchester City xG per match 2.32, 14.2 shots, 3.4 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Aston Villa 1.51, Manchester City 1.53; shots on target faced 7.8 vs 7.6, big chances faced 2.5 vs 3.0.
- Running: Aston Villa 112.0 km, Manchester City 110.9 km; sprints 118 vs 94.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Sprints per match
118
vs 94
· Edge 20.2%
Big chances faced per match
2.5
vs 3.0
· Edge 16.7%
xGA per match
1.51
vs 1.53
· Edge 1.9%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Points per game
3.00
vs 1.60
· Edge 46.7%
Goals per match
2.60
vs 1.40
· Edge 46.2%
xG per match
2.32
vs 1.67
· Edge 28.0%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Aston Villa
|
Metric |
Manchester City
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.60 | Points per game | 3.00 |
| 1.40 | Goals per match | 2.60 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per match | 1.00 |
| 1.55 | Expected points per game | 1.89 |
| Attack | ||
| 1.67 | xG per match | 2.32 |
| 13.8 | Shots per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 14.2 |
| 9.2 | Shots on target per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 9.2 |
| 2.5 | Big chances created per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 3.4 |
| 57.5% | Possession 4 / 5 matches with data | 62.6% |
| 8.4 | Deep completions per match | 8.6 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.51 | xGA per match | 1.53 |
| 15.8 | Shots faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 13.2 |
| 7.8 | Shots on target faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 7.6 |
| 2.5 | Big chances faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 3.0 |
| 8.0 | Deep completions allowed per match | 5.6 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| 112.0 km | Distance covered per match (km) 4 / 5 matches with data | 110.9 km |
| 118 | Sprints per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 94 |
| 16.2 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 19.0 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Aston Villa 7
- Aaron Wan-Bissaka Injury Expected back mid November 2026
- Amadou Onana Injury Expected back mid April 2027
- George Hemmings Injury Doubtful
- Ian Maatsen Injury Doubtful
- Johan Manzambi Injury Doubtful
- Matteo Ruggeri Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Modou Kéba Cissé Injury Doubtful
Manchester City 4
- Antoine Semenyo Injury Expected back mid December 2026
- Mateo Kovacic Injury Doubtful
- Matheus Nunes Injury Doubtful
- Nico O'Reilly Injury Doubtful
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.