Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: what the data says
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Bayern Munich have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but Arsenal have taken more points recently.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Bayern Munich +2.86, Arsenal +0.54.
- Points per game over the last five: Bayern Munich 2.20, Arsenal 2.40, opposite to the underlying signal.
- Attack: Bayern Munich xG per match 3.75, 25.5 shots, 6.0 big chances created; Arsenal xG per match 1.85, 12.2 shots, 3.0 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Bayern Munich 0.88, Arsenal 1.31; shots on target faced 5.0 vs 7.5, big chances faced 1.2 vs 1.2.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Goals per match
3.40
vs 1.40
· Edge 58.8%
Shots per match
25.5
vs 12.2
· Edge 52.0%
Shots on target per match
18.0
vs 8.8
· Edge 51.4%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Points per game
2.40
vs 2.20
· Edge 8.3%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Bayern Munich
|
Metric |
Arsenal
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 2.20 | Points per game | 2.40 |
| 3.40 | Goals per match | 1.40 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded per match | 1.00 |
| 2.77 | Expected points per game | 1.69 |
| Attack | ||
| 3.75 | xG per match | 1.85 |
| 25.5 | Shots per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 12.2 |
| 18.0 | Shots on target per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 8.8 |
| 6.0 | Big chances created per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 3.0 |
| 71.8% | Possession 4 / 4 matches with data | 60.8% |
| 19.6 | Deep completions per match | 10.6 |
| Defence | ||
| 0.88 | xGA per match | 1.31 |
| 8.2 | Shots faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 12.5 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 7.5 |
| 1.2 | Big chances faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 1.2 |
| 3.2 | Deep completions allowed per match | 4.6 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| — | Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 4 matches with data | 117.8 km |
| — | Sprints per match 0 / 4 matches with data | 110 |
| 27.4 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 17.8 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Bayern Munich 1
- Jamal Musiala Injury Expected return: A few weeks
Arsenal 2
- Christos Tzolis Injury Expected back late October 2026
- William Saliba Injury Back in training
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.