Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: what the data says
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Real Madrid lead in both underlying performance and recent points.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Real Madrid +0.81, RB Leipzig -0.07.
- Points per game over the last five: Real Madrid 2.40, RB Leipzig 1.20.
- Attack: Real Madrid xG per match 2.11, 15.6 shots, 3.0 big chances created; RB Leipzig xG per match 2.08, 16.4 shots, 3.0 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Real Madrid 1.30, RB Leipzig 2.15; shots on target faced 9.4 vs 12.2, big chances faced 1.6 vs 3.8.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Big chances faced per match
1.6
vs 3.8
· Edge 57.9%
Points per game
2.40
vs 1.20
· Edge 50.0%
Goals conceded per match
1.20
vs 2.20
· Edge 45.5%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Shots on target per match
10.4
vs 9.2
· Edge 11.5%
Shots per match
16.4
vs 15.6
· Edge 4.9%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Real Madrid
|
Metric |
RB Leipzig
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 2.40 | Points per game | 1.20 |
| 2.60 | Goals per match | 2.60 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per match | 2.20 |
| 1.92 | Expected points per game | 1.55 |
| Attack | ||
| 2.11 | xG per match | 2.08 |
| 15.6 | Shots per match | 16.4 |
| 9.2 | Shots on target per match | 10.4 |
| 3.0 | Big chances created per match | 3.0 |
| 50.0% | Possession | 53.8% |
| 12.4 | Deep completions per match | 9.2 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.30 | xGA per match | 2.15 |
| 14.8 | Shots faced per match | 17.4 |
| 9.4 | Shots on target faced per match | 12.2 |
| 1.6 | Big chances faced per match | 3.8 |
| 8.0 | Deep completions allowed per match | 9.2 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| — | Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| — | Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| 19.6 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 20.4 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Real Madrid 3
- Ferland Mendy Injury Back in training
- Raúl Asencio Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Rodrygo Injury Expected back late December 2026
RB Leipzig 2
- Assan Ouédraogo Injury Expected back late December 2026
- Marc Guiu Injury Expected return: A few weeks
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.