Bournemouth vs AC Milan

Bournemouth vs AC Milan: what the data says

Match data Moderate evidence UEFA Europa League Insight date · 2026-10-21 2026-10-22 ~ 2026-10-22

What is worth noting before kickoff?

What this page answers

A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.

The takeaway

Bournemouth have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but AC Milan have taken more points recently.

  • Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Bournemouth +1.37, AC Milan +0.34.
  • Points per game over the last five: Bournemouth 1.00, AC Milan 1.80, opposite to the underlying signal.
  • Attack: Bournemouth xG per match 2.24, 16.8 shots, 3.2 big chances created; AC Milan xG per match 1.84, 10.2 shots, 3.0 big chances created. AC Milan have the better conversion (2.00 vs 1.40).
  • Defence: expected goals conceded per match Bournemouth 0.86, AC Milan 1.51; shots on target faced 5.0 vs 6.2, big chances faced 1.2 vs 2.4.

Each team's clearest edge

Home edge

Bournemouth

Big chances faced per match 1.2 vs 2.4 · Edge 50.0%
xGA per match 0.86 vs 1.51 · Edge 42.6%
Shots per match 16.8 vs 10.2 · Edge 39.3%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Away edge

AC Milan

Points per game 1.80 vs 1.00 · Edge 44.4%
Goals conceded per match 1.20 vs 2.00 · Edge 40.0%
Goals per match 2.00 vs 1.40 · Edge 30.0%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Head-to-head data

Bournemouth Metric AC Milan
Results
1.00 Points per game 1.80
1.40 Goals per match 2.00
2.00 Goals conceded per match 1.20
2.05 Expected points per game 1.59
Attack
2.24 xG per match 1.84
16.8 Shots per match 10.2
9.6 Shots on target per match 7.8
3.2 Big chances created per match 3.0
52.0% Possession 60.2%
9.0 Deep completions per match 5.6
Defence
0.86 xGA per match 1.51
8.4 Shots faced per match 10.0
5.0 Shots on target faced per match 6.2
1.2 Big chances faced per match 2.4
5.8 Deep completions allowed per match 4.8
Running & pressing
115.2 km Distance covered per match (km) 5 / 0 matches with data —
110 Sprints per match 5 / 0 matches with data —
24.2 Pressing value (lower is stronger) 17.2

Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.

Injuries & absences

Bournemouth 4

Snapshot · 2026-10-21

  • Alex Scott Injury Expected back late October 2026
  • Julián Araujo Injury Expected back late November 2026
  • Junior Kroupi Injury Expected back late October 2026
  • Veljko Milosavljević Injury Doubtful

AC Milan 2

Snapshot · 2026-10-21

  • Alexis Saelemaekers Injury Expected back mid January 2027
  • Matteo Gabbia Injury Expected back early January 2027

Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.

Limitations

Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).

  • Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.