Brighton's results have picked up

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 3.00 (+125%); the previous-season baseline is 1.40; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver

Primary driver Multiple factors +0.85 Share 27% Attribution confidence Limited evidence

Over the last 3 matches, points per game moved 1.33 → 3.00; goal difference per game 1.33 → 3.33. No single factor explains more than 30% of the change; this is a multi-factor shift.

Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season

Result layer

Metric	Previous	Recent	Change	Change %
Goal difference per game	1.33	3.33	+2.0	+150.0%
Points per game	1.33	3.0	+1.67	+125.0%
Goals conceded per game	1.67	0.0	-1.67	-100.0%
xGA per game	2.37	0.91	-1.46	-61.5%
Expected points per game	1.39	2.23	+0.83	+60.1%
xG per game	2.26	2.0	-0.26	-11.4%
Goals per game	3.0	3.33	+0.33	+11.1%

Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.

Attack: where the change came from

Factor	Previous → current	Change %	Impact on goal difference	Share
Finishing Goals minus expected goals moved +0.74 → +1.55; finishing adds +0.81 goals per game.	0.74 → 1.55 goals above expected per game	+109.6%	+0.81	56%
Shot volume Shots per game moved 19.00 → 15.00; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.48 goals per game.	19.0 → 15.0 shots per game	-21.1%	-0.48	33%
Shot quality Expected goals per shot moved 0.12 → 0.13; at the current shot volume this adds +0.16 goals per game.	0.12 → 0.13 expected goals per shot	+9.2%	+0.16	11%

Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.

Defense: where the change came from

Factor	Previous → current	Change %	Impact on goal difference	Share
Shot quality faced Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.17 → 0.08; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.77 per game.	0.17 → 0.08 expected goals per shot faced	-50.8%	+0.78	46%
Shots faced Shots faced per game moved 14.00 → 9.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.85 per game.	14.0 → 9.0 shots faced per game	-35.7%	+0.85	51%
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.70 → +0.75; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.05 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.20, opponent on-target quality +0.25.	0.7 → 0.75 expected goals minus goals conceded per game	+6.4%	+0.04	3%

Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.

Context factors

Factor	Previous	Recent	Change	Change %
Set-piece threat Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -205% of the change in attacking expected goals.	0.52	1.04	+0.53	+101.7%
Penalty threat Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.	0.26	0.0	-0.26	-100.0%
Open-play threat Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).	1.38	0.8	-0.57	-41.8%
Deep completions allowed Deep completions allowed per game.	9.67	6.0	-3.67	-37.9%
Possession Average possession share.	70.33	47.5	-22.83	-32.5%
Pressing intensity Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.	21.67	28.33	+6.67	+30.8%
Opponent strength Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is little change in schedule difficulty. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.	-0.26	-0.2	+0.06	+23.5%
Sprints From the Premier League physical feed only.	92.67	110.0	+17.33	+18.7%
Deep completions Deep completions per game (attacking progression).	4.33	5.0	+0.67	+15.4%
Big chances Big chances created per game.	4.33	4.0	-0.33	-7.7%
Distance covered From the Premier League physical feed only.	112.27	115.59	+3.33	+3.0%
Red cards Red cards change game state; treat as context.	0.0	0.5	+0.5	—

Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.

Data gaps

Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
Shot detail covers 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
Post-shot expected goals cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
Running and sprint data cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; running is context only and did not decide the main factor.
The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.

The evidence

Metric	Recent 3	Previous 3	Change
Points per game	3.0	1.33	+125%

What doesn't move in step

Metric	Recent 5	Previous 5	Change
xG per match	2.0	2.26	-11%
xGA per match	0.91	2.37	-62%
Non-penalty xG per match	2.0	2.0	-0%
Non-penalty xGA per match	0.91	2.37	-62%
Deep completions allowed per match	6.0	9.67	-38%
Goals conceded per match	0.0	1.67	-100%

Possible explanations

Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 1.63 xG created this season, versus 1.40 in the previous 3; a step up in opposition quality may be a factor.
3.33 goals scored against 2.00 expected over the last 3 (difference +1.33).

Limitations

Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).

League matches only (349 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.