Real Sociedad are getting results beyond their underlying numbers
Is the overperformance sustainable?
Over the last 8 matches, points per game (2.00) vs expected points per game (1.19): gap +0.81.
Primary driver
Over the last 8 matches, points per game is 2.00 against 1.19 expected; goals run 0.61 per game above expected goals, and goals conceded run 0.08 per game above expected goals conceded. Goals run 0.61 per game above expected; finishing is the main reason results outrun the underlying numbers.
Current season: last 8 matches
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | — | 2.0 | — | — |
| Expected points per game | — | 1.19 | — | — |
| Points minus expected points | — | 0.81 | — | — |
| Goals minus expected goals | — | 0.61 | — | — |
| Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded | — | -0.08 | — | — |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game.
|
— | 0.24 | — | — |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
— | 1.08 | — | — |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
— | 2.12 | — | — |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
— | 24.5 | — | — |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
— | 7.38 | — | — |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
— | 9.25 | — | — |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
— | 48.5 | — | — |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
— | 0.1 | — | — |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
— | 0.38 | — | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Finishing gaps are descriptive, not a forecast: overperformance can persist or regress.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 8 | Previous 8 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points vs expected points | 2.0 | 1.19 | +69% |
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (465 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.