Toulouse's results have picked up
Is the uptick sustainable?
Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 0.67 to 2.33 (+250%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, points per game moved 0.67 → 2.33; goal difference per game -0.33 → 1.33. Goals minus expected goals moved -0.54 → +0.77; finishing adds +1.30 goals per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal difference per game | -0.33 | 1.33 | +1.67 | +500.0% |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 2.33 | +1.67 | +250.0% |
| Goals per game | 1.33 | 2.67 | +1.33 | +100.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.79 | 1.33 | -0.46 | -25.7% |
| Expected points per game | 1.57 | 1.96 | +0.39 | +24.9% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | -0.33 | -20.0% |
| xG per game | 1.87 | 2.1 | +0.23 | +12.1% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.54 → +0.77; finishing adds +1.30 goals per game.
|
-0.54 → 0.77
goals above expected per game
|
+242.4% | +1.3 | 60% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 14.33 → 10.50; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.50 goals per game.
|
14.33 → 10.5
shots per game
|
-26.7% | -0.5 | 23% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.13 → 0.17; at the current shot volume this adds +0.36 goals per game.
|
0.13 → 0.17
expected goals per shot
|
+26.4% | +0.36 | 17% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.13 → -0.08; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.21 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -1.01, opponent on-target quality +0.80.
|
0.13 → -0.08
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-161.8% | -0.21 | 19% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.11 → 0.07; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.62 per game.
|
0.11 → 0.07
expected goals per shot faced
|
-40.4% | +0.62 | 58% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 15.67 → 13.50; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.25 per game.
|
15.67 → 13.5
shots faced per game
|
-13.8% | +0.25 | 23% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
0.35 | -0.6 | -0.95 | -270.1% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -113% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.35 | 0.1 | -0.26 | -72.4% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
10.0 | 5.67 | -4.33 | -43.3% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.76 | 1.13 | -0.63 | -35.9% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
54.0 | 44.5 | -9.5 | -17.6% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
3.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 | -16.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
27.67 | 23.67 | -4.0 | -14.5% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.0 | 5.33 | -0.67 | -11.1% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.39 | +0.39 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.33 | 0.67 | +250% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 1.33 | 1.79 | -26% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.59 | 1.87 | -15% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.33 | 1.79 | -26% |
| Deep completions per match | 5.67 | 10.0 | -43% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 5.33 | 6.0 | -11% |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.67 | -20% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 1.31 xG created this season, versus 1.64 in the previous 3; a softer schedule may be a factor.
- 2.67 goals scored against 2.10 expected over the last 3 (difference +0.57).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (365 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.