Udinese's results have dipped
How deep does the dip go?
Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.00 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, points per game moved 1.00 → 0.00; goal difference per game -0.67 → -1.67. No single factor explains more than 30% of the change; this is a multi-factor shift.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal difference per game | -0.67 | -1.67 | -1.0 | -150.0% |
| Points per game | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -100.0% |
| Goals per game | 2.33 | 0.33 | -2.0 | -85.7% |
| Expected points per game | 0.48 | 0.86 | +0.37 | +76.9% |
| Goals conceded per game | 3.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -33.3% |
| xG per game | 1.04 | 1.0 | -0.03 | -3.2% |
| xGA per game | 2.52 | 2.46 | -0.06 | -2.4% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved +1.30 → -0.08; finishing adds -1.38 goals per game.
|
1.29 → -0.08
goals above expected per game
|
-106.4% | -1.38 | 46% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.11 → 0.04; at the current shot volume this adds -1.03 goals per game.
|
0.11 → 0.04
expected goals per shot
|
-63.8% | -1.03 | 35% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 9.33 → 14.50; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.57 goals per game.
|
9.33 → 14.5
shots per game
|
+55.4% | +0.57 | 19% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.48 → +0.87; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +1.35 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.06, opponent on-target quality +1.29.
|
-0.48 → 0.87
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+281.8% | +1.35 | 37% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.12 → 0.23; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -1.57 per game.
|
0.12 → 0.23
expected goals per shot faced
|
+87.6% | -1.57 | 43% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 20.33 → 14.50; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.72 per game.
|
20.33 → 14.5
shots faced per game
|
-28.7% | +0.72 | 20% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
0.8 | -0.58 | -1.38 | -172.4% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
11.0 | 3.0 | -8.0 | -72.7% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.33 | 0.5 | -0.83 | -62.5% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
41.0 | 64.5 | +23.5 | +57.3% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.75 | 0.46 | -0.29 | -39.0% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game.
|
0.17 | 0.16 | -0.01 | -5.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
17.33 | 17.67 | +0.33 | +1.9% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.0 | 1.0 | -100% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.0 | 1.04 | -3% |
| xGA per match | 2.46 | 2.52 | -2% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.0 | 1.04 | -3% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 2.46 | 2.52 | -2% |
| Expected points per game | 0.86 | 0.48 | +77% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 1.33 xG created this season, versus 2.25 in the previous 3; a softer schedule may be a factor.
- 0.33 goals scored against 1.01 expected over the last 3 (difference -0.67).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (463 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.