Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: what the data says
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Nottingham Forest have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but Ipswich have taken more points recently.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Ipswich -0.74, Nottingham Forest +0.61.
- Points per game over the last five: Ipswich 1.20, Nottingham Forest 0.80, opposite to the underlying signal.
- Attack: Ipswich xG per match 1.27, 11.2 shots, 2.0 big chances created; Nottingham Forest xG per match 1.89, 18.0 shots, 3.8 big chances created. Ipswich have the better conversion (1.40 vs 0.60).
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Ipswich 2.01, Nottingham Forest 1.29; shots on target faced 8.2 vs 5.8, big chances faced 2.5 vs 2.5.
- Running: Ipswich 118.6 km, Nottingham Forest 112.4 km; sprints 120 vs 106.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Goals per match
1.40
vs 0.60
· Edge 57.1%
Points per game
1.20
vs 0.80
· Edge 33.3%
Sprints per match
120
vs 106
· Edge 11.7%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Big chances created per match
3.8
vs 2.0
· Edge 46.7%
Shots per match
18.0
vs 11.2
· Edge 37.5%
xGA per match
1.29
vs 2.01
· Edge 36.0%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Ipswich
|
Metric |
Nottingham Forest
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.20 | Points per game | 0.80 |
| 1.40 | Goals per match | 0.60 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded per match | 1.20 |
| 1.00 | Expected points per game | 1.72 |
| Attack | ||
| 1.27 | xG per match | 1.89 |
| 11.2 | Shots per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 18.0 |
| 6.2 | Shots on target per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 9.2 |
| 2.0 | Big chances created per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 3.8 |
| 44.2% | Possession 4 / 4 matches with data | 42.5% |
| 5.6 | Deep completions per match | 7.8 |
| Defence | ||
| 2.01 | xGA per match | 1.29 |
| 13.2 | Shots faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 10.0 |
| 8.2 | Shots on target faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 5.8 |
| 2.5 | Big chances faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 2.5 |
| 7.8 | Deep completions allowed per match | 5.8 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| 118.6 km | Distance covered per match (km) 4 / 4 matches with data | 112.4 km |
| 120 | Sprints per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 106 |
| 25.0 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 21.6 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Ipswich 1
- Jack Taylor Injury Doubtful
Nottingham Forest 3
- Igor Jesus Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Morgan Gibbs-White Injury Doubtful
- Nicolò Savona Injury Expected back late October 2026
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.