Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: what the data says
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Nottingham Forest have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but Brentford have taken more points recently.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Brentford -0.40, Nottingham Forest +0.61.
- Points per game over the last five: Brentford 1.20, Nottingham Forest 0.80, opposite to the underlying signal.
- Attack: Brentford xG per match 1.40, 11.4 shots, 2.8 big chances created; Nottingham Forest xG per match 1.89, 18.0 shots, 3.8 big chances created. Brentford have the better conversion (1.80 vs 0.60).
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Brentford 1.80, Nottingham Forest 1.29; shots on target faced 10.4 vs 5.8, big chances faced 2.4 vs 2.5.
- Running: Brentford 118.9 km, Nottingham Forest 112.4 km; sprints 130 vs 106.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Goals per match
1.80
vs 0.60
· Edge 66.7%
Points per game
1.20
vs 0.80
· Edge 33.3%
Sprints per match
130
vs 106
· Edge 18.3%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Shots on target faced per match
5.8
vs 10.4
· Edge 44.7%
Shots faced per match
10.0
vs 17.4
· Edge 42.5%
Shots per match
18.0
vs 11.4
· Edge 36.7%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Brentford
|
Metric |
Nottingham Forest
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.20 | Points per game | 0.80 |
| 1.80 | Goals per match | 0.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per match | 1.20 |
| 1.13 | Expected points per game | 1.72 |
| Attack | ||
| 1.40 | xG per match | 1.89 |
| 11.4 | Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 18.0 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 9.2 |
| 2.8 | Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 3.8 |
| 44.2% | Possession 5 / 4 matches with data | 42.5% |
| 6.4 | Deep completions per match | 7.8 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.80 | xGA per match | 1.29 |
| 17.4 | Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 10.0 |
| 10.4 | Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 5.8 |
| 2.4 | Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 2.5 |
| 12.6 | Deep completions allowed per match | 5.8 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| 118.9 km | Distance covered per match (km) 5 / 4 matches with data | 112.4 km |
| 130 | Sprints per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 106 |
| 25.2 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 21.6 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Brentford 2
- Antoni Milambo Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Joshua Dasilva Injury Expected back late October 2026
Nottingham Forest 3
- Igor Jesus Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Morgan Gibbs-White Injury Doubtful
- Nicolò Savona Injury Expected back late October 2026
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.