Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: what the data says

Match data Moderate evidence Bundesliga Insight date · 2026-10-22 2026-10-31 ~ 2026-10-31

What is worth noting before kickoff?

What this page answers

A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.

The takeaway

Bayern Munich have the stronger underlying attack/defence.

  • Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Bayern Munich +2.86, Borussia Dortmund +1.19.
  • Attack: Bayern Munich xG per match 3.75, 25.5 shots, 6.0 big chances created; Borussia Dortmund xG per match 2.18, 14.0 shots, 4.2 big chances created.
  • Defence: expected goals conceded per match Bayern Munich 0.88, Borussia Dortmund 0.99; shots on target faced 5.0 vs 6.2, big chances faced 1.2 vs 2.0.

Each team's clearest edge

Home edge

Bayern Munich

Shots on target per match 18.0 vs 9.0 · Edge 50.0%
Goals per match 3.40 vs 1.80 · Edge 47.1%
Shots per match 25.5 vs 14.0 · Edge 45.1%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Away edge

Borussia Dortmund

No clear edge in the displayed metrics.

Head-to-head data

Bayern Munich Metric Borussia Dortmund
Results
2.20 Points per game 2.20
3.40 Goals per match 1.80
0.80 Goals conceded per match 0.80
2.77 Expected points per game 2.10
Attack
3.75 xG per match 2.18
25.5 Shots per match 4 / 4 matches with data 14.0
18.0 Shots on target per match 4 / 4 matches with data 9.0
6.0 Big chances created per match 4 / 4 matches with data 4.2
71.8% Possession 4 / 4 matches with data 57.2%
19.6 Deep completions per match 10.2
Defence
0.88 xGA per match 0.99
8.2 Shots faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data 12.8
5.0 Shots on target faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data 6.2
1.2 Big chances faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data 2.0
3.2 Deep completions allowed per match 4.0
Running & pressing
— Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data —
— Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data —
27.4 Pressing value (lower is stronger) 24.4

Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.

Injuries & absences

Bayern Munich 2

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Jamal Musiala Injury Expected return: A few weeks
  • Jamal Musiala Injury Expected return: A few weeks

Borussia Dortmund 4

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Emre Can Injury Expected back mid November 2026
  • Giannis Konstantelias Injury Expected back late May 2027
  • Justin Lerma Injury Expected back in about 1-2 weeks
  • Konstantinos Karetsas Injury Expected back early November 2026

Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.

Limitations

Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).

  • Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.