Atletico Madrid's attacking output has jumped
Can {name} keep it going?
Over the last 4 matches xG per match moved from 1.20 to 2.83 (+136%); the previous-season baseline is 1.79; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, expected goals per game moved 1.20 → 2.83. Expected goals per shot moved 0.08 → 0.13; at the current shot volume this adds +1.08 goals per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal difference per game | 0.5 | 1.75 | +1.25 | +250.0% |
| xG per game | 1.2 | 2.83 | +1.63 | +135.9% |
| Expected points per game | 1.18 | 2.55 | +1.37 | +116.4% |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 3.0 | +1.25 | +71.4% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.5 | 0.5 | -1.0 | -66.7% |
| xGA per game | 1.78 | 0.66 | -1.12 | -63.0% |
| Goals per game | 2.0 | 2.25 | +0.25 | +12.5% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved +0.80 → -0.58; finishing adds -1.38 goals per game.
|
0.8 → -0.58
goals above expected per game
|
-172.8% | -1.38 | 46% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.08 → 0.13; at the current shot volume this adds +1.08 goals per game.
|
0.08 → 0.13
expected goals per shot
|
+61.9% | +1.08 | 36% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 14.75 → 21.50; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.55 goals per game.
|
14.75 → 21.5
shots per game
|
+45.8% | +0.55 | 18% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 13.00 → 7.25; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.79 per game.
|
13.0 → 7.25
shots faced per game
|
-44.2% | +0.79 | 64% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.28 → +0.16; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.12 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.29, opponent on-target quality -0.41.
|
0.28 → 0.16
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-42.8% | -0.12 | 10% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.14 → 0.09; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.33 per game.
|
0.14 → 0.09
expected goals per shot faced
|
-33.6% | +0.33 | 27% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.25 | 4.75 | +3.5 | +280.0% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.8 | 2.0 | +1.2 | +149.3% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is a harder schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
0.14 | 0.36 | +0.21 | +147.6% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.25 | 0.0 | -0.25 | -100.0% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.75 | 1.75 | -5.0 | -74.1% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
9.25 | 13.25 | +4.0 | +43.2% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +5% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.2 | 0.28 | +0.09 | +42.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
19.5 | 25.25 | +5.75 | +29.5% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
54.5 | 66.75 | +12.25 | +22.5% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 2.83 | 1.2 | +136% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 0.66 | 1.78 | -63% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 0.47 | 1.4 | -66% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 1.75 | 6.75 | -74% |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.5 | -67% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.68 xG created this season, versus 1.74 in the previous 4.
- 2.25 goals scored against 2.83 expected over the last 4 (difference -0.58).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (465 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.