Hamburger SV's attacking output has jumped
Can {name} keep it going?
Over the last 3 matches xG per match moved from 0.62 to 1.75 (+181%); the previous-season baseline is 1.29; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, expected goals per game moved 0.62 → 1.75. Expected goals per shot moved 0.07 → 0.11; at the current shot volume this adds +0.51 goals per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| xG per game | 0.62 | 1.75 | +1.13 | +181.0% |
| Expected points per game | 0.49 | 1.34 | +0.85 | +173.3% |
| Goal difference per game | -4.0 | 1.0 | +5.0 | +125.0% |
| Goals conceded per game | 4.0 | 1.0 | -3.0 | -75.0% |
| xGA per game | 2.35 | 1.91 | -0.45 | -18.9% |
| Points per game | 0.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 | — |
| Goals per game | 0.0 | 2.0 | +2.0 | — |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.62 → +0.41; finishing adds +1.03 goals per game.
|
-0.62 → 0.41
goals above expected per game
|
+165.7% | +1.03 | 52% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 8.67 → 15.00; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.46 goals per game.
|
8.67 → 15.0
shots per game
|
+73.1% | +0.46 | 23% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.07 → 0.11; at the current shot volume this adds +0.51 goals per game.
|
0.07 → 0.11
expected goals per shot
|
+47.3% | +0.51 | 26% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -1.65 → +0.78; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +2.43 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.79, opponent on-target quality +1.64.
|
-1.65 → 0.78
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+147.6% | +2.43 | 70% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.13 → 0.09; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.80 per game.
|
0.13 → 0.09
expected goals per shot faced
|
-31.0% | +0.8 | 23% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 18.67 → 20.50; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.23 per game.
|
18.67 → 20.5
shots faced per game
|
+9.8% | -0.23 | 7% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +59% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.09 | 0.75 | +0.66 | +735.6% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
0.67 | 3.5 | +2.83 | +424.7% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
0.76 | -0.04 | -0.8 | -105.4% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
4.33 | 3.0 | -1.33 | -30.8% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
45.0 | 35.0 | -10.0 | -22.2% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
11.33 | 9.67 | -1.67 | -14.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
20.67 | 17.67 | -3.0 | -14.5% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.65 | 0.64 | -0.01 | -1.4% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.75 | 0.62 | +181% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 1.91 | 2.35 | -19% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.91 | 2.35 | -19% |
| Deep completions per match | 3.0 | 4.33 | -31% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 9.67 | 11.33 | -15% |
| Goals per match | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0% |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 4.0 | -75% |
| Points per game | 3.0 | 0.0 | +0% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 2.04 xG created this season, versus 2.26 in the previous 3.
- 2.00 goals scored against 1.75 expected over the last 3 (difference +0.25).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (176 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.