RB Leipzig's defensive numbers are sliding
Is the defense really breaking down?
Over the last 3 matches xGA per match moved from 0.86 to 3.14 (+262%); the previous-season baseline is 1.57; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, expected goals conceded per game moved 0.87 → 3.14. Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.07 → 0.14; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -1.62 per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per game | 0.86 | 3.14 | +2.27 | +262.5% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.0 | 2.67 | +1.67 | +166.7% |
| Goal difference per game | 2.0 | -0.33 | -2.33 | -116.7% |
| Expected points per game | 2.45 | 1.05 | -1.41 | -57.3% |
| Points per game | 2.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -50.0% |
| Goals per game | 3.0 | 2.33 | -0.67 | -22.2% |
| xG per game | 2.6 | 2.12 | -0.48 | -18.5% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved +0.40 → +0.21; finishing adds -0.19 goals per game.
|
0.4 → 0.21
goals above expected per game
|
-46.8% | -0.18 | 15% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 21.00 → 14.67; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.79 goals per game.
|
21.0 → 14.67
shots per game
|
-30.2% | -0.79 | 62% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.12 → 0.14; at the current shot volume this adds +0.30 goals per game.
|
0.12 → 0.14
expected goals per shot
|
+16.7% | +0.3 | 24% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.13 → +0.47; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.61 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.13, opponent on-target quality +0.74.
|
-0.14 → 0.47
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+449.3% | +0.6 | 21% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.07 → 0.14; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -1.62 per game.
|
0.07 → 0.14
expected goals per shot faced
|
+106.4% | -1.62 | 56% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 12.33 → 21.67; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.65 per game.
|
12.33 → 21.67
shots faced per game
|
+75.7% | -0.66 | 23% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is a harder schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
-0.78 | 1.24 | +2.02 | +259.4% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.0 | 12.0 | +6.0 | +100.0% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +102% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
1.05 | 0.56 | -0.49 | -46.8% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
11.33 | 7.67 | -3.67 | -32.3% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
60.67 | 44.67 | -16.0 | -26.4% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
4.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | -25.0% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.81 | 1.45 | -0.36 | -19.9% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
19.0 | 22.33 | +3.33 | +17.5% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 3.14 | 0.86 | +262% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 2.12 | 2.6 | -18% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 2.12 | 2.6 | -18% |
| Deep completions per match | 7.67 | 11.33 | -32% |
| Goals per match | 2.33 | 3.0 | -22% |
| Expected points per game | 1.05 | 2.45 | -57% |
| Points per game | 1.0 | 2.0 | -50% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 2.75 xG created this season, versus 1.40 in the previous 3; a step up in opposition quality may be a factor.
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (346 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.