Sassuolo's results have dipped
How deep does the dip go?
Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 2.33 to 0.33 (-86%); the previous-season baseline is 1.29; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, points per game moved 2.33 → 0.33; goal difference per game 0.67 → -1.00. Goals minus expected goals moved +0.89 → -0.08; finishing adds -0.97 goals per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal difference per game | 0.67 | -1.0 | -1.67 | -250.0% |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 0.33 | -2.0 | -85.7% |
| Goals per game | 2.33 | 1.33 | -1.0 | -42.9% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.33 | +0.67 | +40.0% |
| xG per game | 1.45 | 1.81 | +0.36 | +25.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.9 | 2.14 | +0.24 | +12.8% |
| Expected points per game | 1.09 | 1.14 | +0.05 | +4.4% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved +0.89 → -0.08; finishing adds -0.97 goals per game.
|
0.89 → -0.08
goals above expected per game
|
-108.9% | -0.96 | 59% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.10 → 0.13; at the current shot volume this adds +0.39 goals per game.
|
0.1 → 0.13
expected goals per shot
|
+33.3% | +0.4 | 24% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 14.67 → 12.00; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.26 goals per game.
|
14.67 → 12.0
shots per game
|
-18.2% | -0.26 | 16% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.23 → -0.09; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.32 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.45, opponent on-target quality -0.78.
|
0.23 → -0.09
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-140.4% | -0.33 | 33% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.11 → 0.15; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.58 per game.
|
0.11 → 0.15
expected goals per shot faced
|
+32.1% | -0.58 | 59% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 16.67 → 16.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.08 per game.
|
16.67 → 16.0
shots faced per game
|
-4.0% | +0.08 | 8% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
0.36 | 0.11 | -0.25 | -69.2% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
14.67 | 19.67 | +5.0 | +34.1% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
2.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 | -25.0% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
9.0 | 7.0 | -2.0 | -22.2% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
42.0 | 49.5 | +7.5 | +17.9% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.67 | 7.33 | +0.67 | +10.0% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.3 | 1.35 | +0.05 | +3.9% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +1% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.2 | 0.21 | +0.01 | +2.5% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.33 | 2.33 | -86% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.81 | 1.45 | +25% |
| xGA per match | 2.14 | 1.9 | +13% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.81 | 1.45 | +25% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.89 | 1.9 | -1% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 7.33 | 6.67 | +10% |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.33 | 1.67 | +40% |
| Expected points per game | 1.14 | 1.09 | +4% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 1.86 xG created this season, versus 1.52 in the previous 3; a step up in opposition quality may be a factor.
- 1.33 goals scored against 1.81 expected over the last 3 (difference -0.48).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (425 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.