Liverpool vs Arsenal: what the data says

Match data Moderate evidence Premier League Insight date · 2026-10-23 2026-11-01 ~ 2026-11-01

What is worth noting before kickoff?

What this page answers

A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.

The takeaway

Arsenal lead in both underlying performance and recent points.

  • Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Liverpool +0.25, Arsenal +0.54.
  • Points per game over the last five: Liverpool 2.00, Arsenal 2.40.
  • Attack: Liverpool xG per match 1.23, 14.0 shots, 1.2 big chances created; Arsenal xG per match 1.85, 12.2 shots, 3.0 big chances created.
  • Defence: expected goals conceded per match Liverpool 0.98, Arsenal 1.31; shots on target faced 6.8 vs 7.5, big chances faced 1.4 vs 1.2.
  • Running: Liverpool 111.6 km, Arsenal 117.8 km; sprints 128 vs 110.

Each team's clearest edge

Home edge
xGA per match 0.98 vs 1.31 · Edge 25.1%
Goals conceded per match 0.80 vs 1.00 · Edge 20.0%
Sprints per match 128 vs 110 · Edge 14.0%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Away edge
Big chances created per match 3.0 vs 1.2 · Edge 60.0%
xG per match 1.85 vs 1.23 · Edge 33.8%
Goals per match 1.40 vs 1.00 · Edge 28.6%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Head-to-head data

Liverpool Metric Arsenal
Results
2.00 Points per game 2.40
1.00 Goals per match 1.40
0.80 Goals conceded per match 1.00
1.54 Expected points per game 1.69
Attack
1.23 xG per match 1.85
14.0 Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data 12.2
9.0 Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data 8.8
1.2 Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data 3.0
52.0% Possession 5 / 4 matches with data 60.8%
7.2 Deep completions per match 10.6
Defence
0.98 xGA per match 1.31
11.6 Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 12.5
6.8 Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 7.5
1.4 Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 1.2
8.4 Deep completions allowed per match 4.6
Running & pressing
111.6 km Distance covered per match (km) 5 / 4 matches with data 117.8 km
128 Sprints per match 5 / 4 matches with data 110
24.8 Pressing value (lower is stronger) 17.8

Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.

Injuries & absences

Liverpool 6

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Conor Bradley Injury Expected back early January 2027
  • Dominik Szoboszlai Injury Expected back mid November 2026
  • Giovanni Leoni Injury Expected back late November 2026
  • Hugo Ekitiké Injury Expected back early January 2027
  • Jeremie Frimpong Injury Expected back mid November 2026
  • Víctor Muñoz Injury Doubtful

Arsenal 3

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Christos Tzolis Injury Expected back late October 2026
  • Piero Hincapié Injury Expected return: A few days
  • William Saliba Injury Back in training

Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.

Limitations

Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).

  • Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.