Inter vs Fiorentina: what the data says

Match data Moderate evidence Serie A Insight date · 2026-10-23 2026-10-25 ~ 2026-10-25

What is worth noting before kickoff?

What this page answers

A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.

The takeaway

Inter lead in both underlying performance and recent points.

  • Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Inter +1.69, Fiorentina +0.35.
  • Points per game over the last five: Inter 2.60, Fiorentina 0.80.
  • Attack: Inter xG per match 3.31, 23.0 shots, 6.0 big chances created; Fiorentina xG per match 1.82, 16.4 shots, 2.8 big chances created.
  • Defence: expected goals conceded per match Inter 1.62, Fiorentina 1.47; shots on target faced 6.8 vs 6.6, big chances faced 2.2 vs 2.4.

Each team's clearest edge

Home edge
Points per game 2.60 vs 0.80 · Edge 69.2%
Big chances created per match 6.0 vs 2.8 · Edge 53.3%
Goals per match 3.20 vs 1.60 · Edge 50.0%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Away edge
xGA per match 1.47 vs 1.62 · Edge 9.1%
Shots on target faced per match 6.6 vs 6.8 · Edge 2.2%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Head-to-head data

Inter Metric Fiorentina
Results
2.60 Points per game 0.80
3.20 Goals per match 1.60
1.60 Goals conceded per match 2.00
2.38 Expected points per game 1.54
Attack
3.31 xG per match 1.82
23.0 Shots per match 4 / 5 matches with data 16.4
14.8 Shots on target per match 4 / 5 matches with data 9.4
6.0 Big chances created per match 4 / 5 matches with data 2.8
63.2% Possession 4 / 5 matches with data 45.6%
14.0 Deep completions per match 8.6
Defence
1.62 xGA per match 1.47
10.5 Shots faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data 11.4
6.8 Shots on target faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data 6.6
2.2 Big chances faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data 2.4
5.6 Deep completions allowed per match 4.6
Running & pressing
— Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data —
— Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data —
22.0 Pressing value (lower is stronger) 21.6

Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.

Injuries & absences

Inter 4

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Benjamin Pavard Injury Expected back early November 2026
  • Curtis Jones Injury Expected back early November 2026
  • John Stones Injury Expected back early November 2026
  • Lautaro Martínez Injury Expected back mid November 2026

Fiorentina 3

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Arthur Atta Injury Expected return: A few days
  • Fabiano Parisi Injury Expected back early December 2026
  • Luca Ranieri Injury Doubtful

Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.

Limitations

Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).

  • Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.