What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Inter lead in both underlying performance and recent points.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): AC Milan +0.34, Inter +1.69.
- Points per game over the last five: AC Milan 1.80, Inter 2.60.
- Attack: AC Milan xG per match 1.84, 10.2 shots, 3.0 big chances created; Inter xG per match 3.31, 23.0 shots, 6.0 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match AC Milan 1.51, Inter 1.62; shots on target faced 6.2 vs 6.8, big chances faced 2.4 vs 2.2.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Goals conceded per match
1.20
vs 1.60
· Edge 25.0%
Shots on target faced per match
6.2
vs 6.8
· Edge 8.1%
xGA per match
1.51
vs 1.62
· Edge 7.1%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Shots per match
23.0
vs 10.2
· Edge 55.7%
Big chances created per match
6.0
vs 3.0
· Edge 50.0%
Shots on target per match
14.8
vs 7.8
· Edge 47.1%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
AC Milan
|
Metric |
Inter
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.80 | Points per game | 2.60 |
| 2.00 | Goals per match | 3.20 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per match | 1.60 |
| 1.59 | Expected points per game | 2.38 |
| Attack | ||
| 1.84 | xG per match | 3.31 |
| 10.2 | Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 23.0 |
| 7.8 | Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 14.8 |
| 3.0 | Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 6.0 |
| 60.2% | Possession 5 / 4 matches with data | 63.2% |
| 5.6 | Deep completions per match | 14.0 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.51 | xGA per match | 1.62 |
| 10.0 | Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 10.5 |
| 6.2 | Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 6.8 |
| 2.4 | Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 2.2 |
| 4.8 | Deep completions allowed per match | 5.6 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| — | Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| — | Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| 17.2 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 22.0 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
AC Milan 4
- Alexis Saelemaekers Injury Expected back mid January 2027
- Gonçalo Ramos Injury Doubtful
- Matteo Gabbia Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Samuel Chukwueze Injury Doubtful
Inter 4
- Benjamin Pavard Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Curtis Jones Injury Expected back early November 2026
- John Stones Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Lautaro Martínez Injury Expected back mid November 2026
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.