Elche's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 1.25 (+400%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing +1.36 Share 36% Attribution confidence Limited evidence

Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.25 → 1.25; goal difference per game -1.75 → 0.25. Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.29 → +1.06; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +1.36 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.91, opponent on-target quality +0.45.

Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season

Result layer

Metric	Previous	Recent	Change	Change %
Points per game	0.25	1.25	+1.0	+400.0%
Goal difference per game	-1.75	0.25	+2.0	+114.3%
Goals conceded per game	3.0	1.0	-2.0	-66.7%
xG per game	1.49	0.81	-0.67	-45.3%
xGA per game	2.71	1.81	-0.89	-32.9%
Expected points per game	0.83	0.86	+0.02	+2.5%
Goals per game	1.25	1.25	0.0	0.0%

Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.

Attack: where the change came from

Factor	Previous → current	Change %	Impact on goal difference	Share
Finishing Goals minus expected goals moved -0.23 → +0.00; finishing adds +0.24 goals per game.	-0.23 → 0.0 goals above expected per game	+100.3%	+0.23	22%
Shot quality Expected goals per shot moved 0.12 → 0.06; at the current shot volume this adds -0.63 goals per game.	0.12 → 0.06 expected goals per shot	-48.5%	-0.63	59%
Shot volume Shots per game moved 12.25 → 10.67; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.19 goals per game.	12.25 → 10.67 shots per game	-12.9%	-0.19	18%

Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.

Defense: where the change came from

Factor	Previous → current	Change %	Impact on goal difference	Share
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.29 → +1.06; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +1.36 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.91, opponent on-target quality +0.45.	-0.29 → 1.06 expected goals minus goals conceded per game	+459.5%	+1.36	49%
Shot quality faced Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.20 → 0.13; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +1.02 per game.	0.2 → 0.13 expected goals per shot faced	-33.1%	+1.02	37%
Shots faced Shots faced per game moved 13.75 → 15.67; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.38 per game.	13.75 → 15.67 shots faced per game	+13.9%	-0.38	14%

Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.

Context factors

Factor	Previous	Recent	Change	Change %
Penalty threat Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.	0.2	0.0	-0.2	-100.0%
Big chances Big chances created per game.	2.75	0.33	-2.42	-87.9%
Deep completions allowed Deep completions allowed per game.	7.5	11.25	+3.75	+50.0%
Set-piece threat Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +11% of the change in attacking expected goals.	0.17	0.09	-0.08	-45.5%
Open-play threat Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).	0.88	0.53	-0.35	-39.6%
Opponent strength Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is little change in schedule difficulty. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.	0.43	0.53	+0.11	+24.8%
Deep completions Deep completions per game (attacking progression).	5.25	6.5	+1.25	+23.8%
Pressing intensity Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.	22.75	19.5	-3.25	-14.3%
Possession Average possession share.	49.25	55.0	+5.75	+11.7%

Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.

Data gaps

Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
Shot detail covers 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
Post-shot expected goals cover 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.

The evidence

Metric	Recent 4	Previous 4	Change
Points per game	1.25	0.25	+400%

What doesn't move in step

Metric	Recent 5	Previous 5	Change
xG per match	0.81	1.49	-45%
xGA per match	1.81	2.71	-33%
Non-penalty xG per match	0.81	1.3	-38%
Non-penalty xGA per match	1.81	2.52	-28%
Goals conceded per match	1.0	3.0	-67%
Expected points per game	0.86	0.83	+2%

Possible explanations

Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.83 xG created this season, versus 2.09 in the previous 4.
1.25 goals scored against 0.81 expected over the last 4 (difference +0.44).

Limitations

Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).

League matches only (199 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.