Paris Saint Germain's results have picked up
Is the uptick sustainable?
Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 3.00 (+125%); the previous-season baseline is 2.23; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, points per game moved 1.33 → 3.00; goal difference per game 0.00 → 1.67. Expected goals per shot moved 0.10 → 0.16; at the current shot volume this adds +1.37 goals per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.33 | 3.0 | +1.67 | +125.0% |
| Goals per game | 1.33 | 2.67 | +1.33 | +100.0% |
| xG per game | 1.88 | 3.75 | +1.88 | +99.7% |
| xGA per game | 1.0 | 1.8 | +0.8 | +79.8% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.0 | -0.33 | -25.0% |
| Expected points per game | 1.98 | 2.43 | +0.45 | +22.4% |
| Goal difference per game | 0.0 | 1.67 | +1.67 | — |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.55 → -1.09; finishing adds -0.54 goals per game.
|
-0.55 → -1.09
goals above expected per game
|
-99.1% | -0.54 | 22% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.10 → 0.16; at the current shot volume this adds +1.37 goals per game.
|
0.1 → 0.16
expected goals per shot
|
+57.5% | +1.37 | 57% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 18.67 → 23.67; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.50 goals per game.
|
18.67 → 23.67
shots per game
|
+26.8% | +0.5 | 21% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.33 → +0.80; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +1.13 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.37, opponent on-target quality +0.77.
|
-0.33 → 0.8
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+342.5% | +1.13 | 59% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 9.67 → 13.33; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.38 per game.
|
9.67 → 13.33
shots faced per game
|
+37.9% | -0.38 | 20% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.10 → 0.14; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.42 per game.
|
0.1 → 0.14
expected goals per shot faced
|
+30.4% | -0.42 | 22% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
0.24 | -0.66 | -0.9 | -373.3% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +34% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.49 | 1.13 | +0.64 | +128.7% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
3.67 | 6.67 | +3.0 | +81.8% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.11 | 1.97 | +0.85 | +76.9% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
26.33 | 16.33 | -10.0 | -38.0% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
3.67 | 4.67 | +1.0 | +27.3% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
12.67 | 15.0 | +2.33 | +18.4% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
66.67 | 69.0 | +2.33 | +3.5% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.79 | +0.79 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 3.0 | 1.33 | +125% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.33 | -25% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 1.51 xG created this season, versus 1.63 in the previous 3.
- 2.67 goals scored against 3.75 expected over the last 3 (difference -1.09).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (440 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.