Celta Vigo's results have picked up
Is the uptick sustainable?
Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.00 (+300%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.50 → 2.00; goal difference per game -0.75 → 1.50. Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.13 → 0.05; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +1.19 per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal difference per game | -0.75 | 1.5 | +2.25 | +300.0% |
| Points per game | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | +300.0% |
| Goals per game | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | +300.0% |
| Expected points per game | 0.67 | 1.65 | +0.98 | +146.3% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.5 | -0.75 | -60.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.88 | 0.79 | -1.08 | -57.7% |
| xG per game | 0.84 | 1.22 | +0.38 | +45.6% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.34 → +0.11; finishing adds +0.45 goals per game.
|
-0.34 → 0.11
goals above expected per game
|
+132.9% | +0.45 | 70% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 8.75 → 10.00; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.12 goals per game.
|
8.75 → 10.0
shots per game
|
+14.3% | +0.12 | 19% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.10 → 0.09; at the current shot volume this adds -0.07 goals per game.
|
0.1 → 0.09
expected goals per shot
|
-7.6% | -0.07 | 11% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.63 → +0.15; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.48 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.13, opponent on-target quality -0.61.
|
0.63 → 0.15
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-75.8% | -0.48 | 26% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.13 → 0.05; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +1.19 per game.
|
0.13 → 0.06
expected goals per shot faced
|
-59.3% | +1.19 | 66% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 14.00 → 15.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.13 per game.
|
14.0 → 15.0
shots faced per game
|
+7.1% | -0.13 | 7% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.48 | 1.05 | +0.57 | +119.2% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
-0.32 | -0.67 | -0.36 | -114.0% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.25 | 0.0 | -0.25 | -100.0% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -14% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.11 | 0.05 | -0.05 | -50.0% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
18.0 | 26.5 | +8.5 | +47.2% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
56.25 | 42.33 | -13.92 | -24.7% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
5.25 | 6.0 | +0.75 | +14.3% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.5 | 1.33 | -0.17 | -11.1% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
3.75 | 3.75 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.0 | 0.5 | +300% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 0.79 | 1.88 | -58% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 0.79 | 1.69 | -53% |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.25 | -60% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.20 xG created this season, versus 1.36 in the previous 4.
- 2.00 goals scored against 1.22 expected over the last 4 (difference +0.78).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (465 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.