Football Insights

What is changing across the big five leagues — each date lists only new or materially updated signals, with the evidence and counter evidence behind every claim.
Daily archive → Player Watch → Insight date · 2026-10-22 Data through 2026-10-22 Showing 18 of 111 ← Previous day Next day →
New & updated · 24 All changes · 111
All insights Premier League La Liga Bundesliga Serie A Ligue 1 Player Watch → Team changes Daily player changes Match data
2026-10-23 16 2026-10-22 24 2026-10-21 3 2026-10-20 92

Match data

Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 1.27 xG for, 2.01 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.89 / 1.29.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Arsenal vs Everton: what the data says

Home last five: 2.40 points, 1.85 xG for, 1.31 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.72 / 1.17.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Aston Villa vs Manchester City: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.67 xG for, 1.51 against per game. Away: 3.00 / 2.32 / 1.53.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Chelsea vs Tottenham: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.10 xG for, 1.87 against per game. Away: 0.60 / 1.42 / 1.20.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.46 xG for, 2.40 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.22 / 1.77.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Hull vs Brentford: what the data says

Home last five: 0.60 points, 1.09 xG for, 1.86 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.40 / 1.80.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Liverpool vs Brighton: what the data says

Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.23 xG for, 0.98 against per game. Away: 2.60 / 2.20 / 1.20.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Manchester United vs Bournemouth: what the data says

Home last five: 0.80 points, 1.18 xG for, 1.47 against per game. Away: 1.00 / 2.24 / 0.86.

Team changes

Results vs underlying ▲ Limited evidence Ongoing Serie A 2026-10-22

Cagliari are getting results beyond their underlying numbers

Over the last 6 matches, points per game (2.17) vs expected points per game (1.01): gap +1.16.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing +1.36 97%
Points vs expected points 1.01 → 2.17
Defense ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Serie A 2026-10-22

Monza's defensive numbers are sliding

Over the last 3 matches xGA per match moved from 1.06 to 2.15 (+102%); the previous-season baseline is 1.72; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced -0.89 87%
xGA per match 1.06 → 2.15
Results vs underlying ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Bundesliga 2026-10-22

Borussia M.Gladbach's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 6 matches, points per game (0.00) vs expected points per game (0.70): gap -0.70.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing -0.65 75%
Points vs expected points 0.7 → 0.0
Results ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Sunderland's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shots faced -1.08 31%
Points per game 1.33 → 0.0
Results ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-22

Troyes's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.00 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 0.63; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Multiple factors -0.63 29%
Points per game 1.0 → 0.0
Results ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Serie A 2026-10-22

Udinese's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.00 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Multiple factors -1.57 24%
Points per game 1.0 → 0.0
Results ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Serie A 2026-10-22

Sassuolo's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 2.33 to 0.33 (-86%); the previous-season baseline is 1.29; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing -0.96 37%
Points per game 2.33 → 0.33
Results vs underlying ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-22

Le Havre's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 7 matches, points per game (0.29) vs expected points per game (0.92): gap -0.63.

Primary driver Finishing -0.57 61%
Points vs expected points 0.92 → 0.29
Results vs underlying ▲ Moderate evidence Ongoing La Liga 2026-10-22

Real Sociedad are getting results beyond their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (2.00) vs expected points per game (1.19): gap +0.81.

Primary driver Finishing +0.61 88%
Points vs expected points 1.19 → 2.0
Results vs underlying ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-22

Tottenham's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 6 matches, points per game (0.50) vs expected points per game (1.28): gap -0.78.

Primary driver Finishing -0.81 82%
Points vs expected points 1.28 → 0.5
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