UEFA Europa League Round 3 2026-10-22 · 16:45 UTC finished
Prediction
29% Ararat Armenia (home)
22% Draw
48% AZ Alkmaar (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 1.16 — 1.43 Over 2.5 goals: 48% Both teams to score: 52%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Ararat Armenia AZ Alkmaar
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) —1.5
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) —1.45
Sample size (matches with xG data) 01
Rest days since last match 74
Matches in the last 7 days 13
Matches in the next 7 days 02

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).
no head-to-head data available
no season pressing baseline available for these teams

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Ararat Armenia

No reported absentees.

AZ Alkmaar

  • injured Jizz Hornkamp return: Day to day
  • injured Kees Smit return: About 1-2 weeks
  • injured Stije Resink return: Early January 2027
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: unavailable Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available