Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Arouca | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.04 | 0.48 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 0.39 | 1.67 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 1 | 1 |
| Rest days since last match | 8 | 7 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 236 | 1197 |
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Arouca
- injured Miguel Puche return: Day to day
Nacional
- injured Léo Santos return: Day to day
- injured Ulisses return: Day to day
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Arouca 8 · 5 5 draws · 2 Nacional
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Arouca | 3 - 0 | Nacional |
| 2025-09-20 | Nacional | 1 - 2 | Arouca |
| 2025-02-01 | Nacional | 1 - 2 | Arouca |
| 2024-08-25 | Arouca | 1 - 0 | Nacional |
| 2018-05-06 | Arouca | 0 - 1 | Nacional |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage