Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Arsenal | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.71 | 1.54 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 0.68 | 1.29 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 4 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 21 | 20 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 3 | 1 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 77 | 266 |
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Arsenal
- injured Christos Tzolis return: Late October 2026
- injured William Saliba return: Late November 2026
Leeds
- injured Daniel James return: Late October 2026
- injured Joe Rodon return: Early November 2026
- injured Mateo Joseph return: Early January 2027
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Arsenal 11 · 2 2 draws · 0 Leeds
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Leeds United | 0 - 4 | Arsenal |
| 2025-08-23 | Arsenal | 5 - 0 | Leeds United |
| 2023-04-01 | Arsenal | 4 - 1 | Leeds United |
| 2022-10-16 | Leeds United | 0 - 1 | Arsenal |
| 2022-05-08 | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Leeds United |
The prediction model provides the probabilities. AI explains the evidence behind them.
This AI preview is currently generated in Chinese.阿森纳主场迎战不败利兹联，矛与盾的碰撞
阿森纳5战4胜积12分排名第2，但上轮客场0比3负于布莱顿，不败金身告破。利兹联4战2胜2平保持不败，积8分排名第6，客场1胜1平表现稳健。本团队模型给出的概率略偏阿森纳，预期进球差距明显。最大不确定点在于阿森纳刚经历惨败后的调整能力，以及利兹联不败势头能否在客场延续。
Key points:
- 阿森纳赛季场均预期进球1.712，场均失球预期仅0.68，攻防两端数据均优于联赛平均水平（联赛场均预期进球1.5）。
- 利兹联赛季4场不败，但场均被射门预期进球1.35，防守端承受压力明显高于阿森纳，且定位球预期进球0.617是其主要威胁手段。
- 阿森纳主场2战全胜，进5球失1球，主场场均积分3.0；利兹联客场2场仅失1球，客场防守稳固。
- 两队近期预期进球差形成鲜明对比：阿森纳近4场场均预期进球差+1.03，利兹联仅+0.25，阿森纳场面优势更显著。
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage