No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.25 | 1.71 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.13 | 1.28 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 12.7 | 13.5 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 3 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 737 | 318 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Athletic Club
- injured Gorka Guruzeta return: Out for season
- injured Íñigo Ruiz de Galarreta return: Early November 2026
- injured Oihan Sancet return: Early November 2026
- injured Unai Egiluz return: Mid January 2027
Real Madrid
- injured Ferland Mendy return: Back in training
- injured Raúl Asencio return: Early January 2027
- injured Rodrygo return: Late December 2026
- injured Thibaut Courtois return: A few days
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Athletic Club 12 · 11 11 draws · 43 Real Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Real Madrid | 4:2 | Ath Bilbao |
| 2025-12-03 | Ath Bilbao | 0:3 | Real Madrid |
| 2025-04-20 | Real Madrid | 1:0 | Ath Bilbao |
| 2024-12-04 | Ath Bilbao | 2:1 | Real Madrid |
| 2024-03-31 | Real Madrid | 2:0 | Ath Bilbao |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage