Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.25 | 2.24 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.13 | 1.48 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 12.7 | 12.2 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 79 |
What the data says
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: what the data says
Home last five: 1.80 points, 2.02 xG for, 1.01 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 1.54 / 2.10.
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Athletic Club
- injured Gorka Guruzeta return: Out for season
- injured Íñigo Ruiz de Galarreta return: Early November 2026
- injured Oihan Sancet return: Early November 2026
- injured Unai Egiluz return: Mid January 2027
Real Sociedad
- injured Álvaro Odriozola return: Early November 2026
- injured Luken Beitia return: Early November 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Athletic Club 13 · 9 9 draws · 16 Real Sociedad
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Real Sociedad | 0 - 1 | Athletic Club |
| 2026-03-04 | Real Sociedad | 1 - 0 | Athletic Club |
| 2026-02-11 | Athletic Club | 0 - 1 | Real Sociedad |
| 2026-02-01 | Athletic Club | 1 - 1 | Real Sociedad |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Sociedad | 3 - 2 | Athletic Club |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage