Bundesliga Round 5 2026-10-10 · 13:30 UTC finished
Prediction
10% Augsburg (home)
15% Draw
74% Bayern Munich (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 1.0 — 2.49 Over 2.5 goals: 68% Both teams to score: 58%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Augsburg Bayern Munich
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.992.94
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 2.320.65
Sample size (matches with xG data) 33
Rest days since last match 2122
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 18.7 9.0
Matches in the last 7 days 00
Matches in the next 7 days 23
Travel to this match (km) 54756

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Augsburg

  • injured Faik Sakar return: Early October 2026
  • injured Noahkai Banks return: Late October 2026
  • injured Steve Mounié return: Mid October 2026
  • injured Tim Breithaupt return: About 1-2 weeks

Bayern Munich

  • injured Jamal Musiala return: A few weeks

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Augsburg 5 · 2 2 draws · 27 Bayern Munich

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-01-24Bayern München 1 - 2Augsburg
2025-08-30Augsburg 2 - 3Bayern München
2025-04-04Augsburg 1 - 3Bayern München
2024-11-22Bayern München 3 - 0Augsburg
2024-01-27Augsburg 2 - 3Bayern München
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available