UEFA Europa League Round 2 2026-10-15 · 16:45 UTC finished
Prediction
53% AZ Alkmaar (home) Model favorite
32% Draw
15% Hapoel Beer Sheva (away)
Expected goals 1.5 — 0.79 Over 2.5 goals: 40% Both teams to score: 42%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric AZ Alkmaar Hapoel Beer Sheva
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) ——
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) ——
Sample size (matches with xG data) 00
Rest days since last match 529
Matches in the last 7 days 10
Matches in the next 7 days 31
Travel to this match (km) 81—

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.
no head-to-head data available
no season pressing baseline available for these teams
recent form lacks xG samples, so attack/defence form is not measurable

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

AZ Alkmaar

  • injured Jizz Hornkamp return: A few days
  • injured Kees Smit return: Late October 2026
  • injured Stije Resink return: Early January 2027

Hapoel Beer Sheva

No reported absentees.

Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: unavailable Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: unavailable Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available