Prediction
61%
Barcelona (home)
Model favorite
18%
Draw
21%
Aston Villa (away)
Expected goals
2.17 — 1.36
Over 2.5 goals: 68%
Both teams to score: 66%
Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Barcelona | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 3.03 | 1.59 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 3 | 3 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 6.6 | 15.5 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 1274 |
What could go against this prediction
The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 65.0% of the time.
no head-to-head data available
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Barcelona
- injured Andreas Christensen return: Mid November 2026
- injured Dani Olmo return: Late November 2026
- injured Eric García return: Mid November 2026
- injured Jules Koundé return: Early November 2026
- injured Roony Bardghji return: Late February 2027
- injured Xavi Espart return: Early November 2026
Aston Villa
- injured Aaron Wan-Bissaka return: Mid November 2026
- injured Amadou Onana return: Mid April 2027
- injured Matteo Ruggeri return: Mid December 2026
- injured Modou Kéba Cissé return: Back in training
Ask AI about this match
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
available
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
unavailable
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available