Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Barcelona | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 3.3 | 2.04 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.84 | 1.2 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 5 | 4 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 6.6 | 13.5 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 3 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 3 | 3 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 830 | 499 |
What the data says
Barcelona vs Real Madrid: what the data says
Home last five: 3.00 points, 3.92 xG for, 1.26 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 2.11 / 1.30.
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Barcelona
- injured Andreas Christensen return: Mid November 2026
- injured Dani Olmo return: Late November 2026
- injured Eric García return: Mid November 2026
- injured Jules Koundé return: Early November 2026
- injured Roony Bardghji return: Late February 2027
Real Madrid
- injured Ferland Mendy return: Back in training
- injured Raúl Asencio return: Early January 2027
- injured Rodrygo return: Late December 2026
- injured Thibaut Courtois return: A few days
- suspended Vinícius Júnior return: Early November 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Barcelona 29 · 10 10 draws · 21 Real Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Barcelona | 2 - 0 | Real Madrid |
| 2026-01-11 | Barcelona | 3 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 2025-10-26 | Real Madrid | 2 - 1 | Barcelona |
| 2025-05-11 | Barcelona | 4 - 3 | Real Madrid |
| 2025-04-26 | Barcelona | 3 - 2 | Real Madrid |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage