Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Bayern Munich | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 3.31 | 2.1 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.37 | 0.95 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 6 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 283 | 471 |
What the data says
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: what the data says
Home last five: 2.20 points, 3.75 xG for, 0.88 against per game. Away: 2.20 / 2.18 / 0.99.
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Bayern Munich
- injured Aleksandar Pavlovic return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Jamal Musiala return: A few weeks
- injured Luis Díaz return: Late November 2026
- injured Manuel Neuer return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Min-Jae Kim return: About a week
Borussia Dortmund
- injured Emre Can return: Mid November 2026
- injured Giannis Konstantelias return: Late May 2027
- injured Justin Lerma return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Kauã Prates return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Konstantinos Karetsas return: Early November 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Bayern Munich 27 · 9 9 draws · 13 Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 - 2 | Bayern München |
| 2026-02-28 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 3 | Bayern München |
| 2025-10-18 | Bayern München | 2 - 1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2025-04-12 | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2024-11-30 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 - 1 | Bayern München |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage