Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Chelsea | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 0.96 | 1.11 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.32 | 1.77 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 6 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 14.4 | 12.5 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 262 |
What the data says
Chelsea vs Manchester United: what the data says
Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.10 xG for, 1.87 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.18 / 1.47.
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Chelsea
- injured Emiliano Martínez return: Early November 2026
- injured Emmanuel Emegha return: About a week
- injured Jamie Gittens return: About a week
- injured João Pedro return: doubtful
- injured Pep Chavarría return: About a week
- injured Reece James return: Mid January 2027
Manchester United
- injured Benjamin Sesko return: Late October 2026
- injured Kobbie Mainoo return: About a week
- injured Luke Shaw return: A few days
- injured Manuel Ugarte return: Early April 2027
- injured Marcus Rashford return: doubtful
- injured Patrick Dorgu return: Late October 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Chelsea 13 · 14 14 draws · 16 Manchester United
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Chelsea | 0 - 1 | Manchester United |
| 2025-09-20 | Manchester United | 2 - 1 | Chelsea |
| 2025-05-16 | Chelsea | 1 - 0 | Manchester United |
| 2024-11-03 | Manchester United | 1 - 1 | Chelsea |
| 2024-04-04 | Chelsea | 4 - 3 | Manchester United |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage