Liga Portugal Round 9 2026-10-25 · 15:30 UTC finished
Estoril (home)
VS Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Moreirense (away)
Prediction
48% Estoril (home) Model favorite
30% Draw
22% Moreirense (away)
Expected goals 1.46 — 1.12 Over 2.5 goals: 48% Both teams to score: 52%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Estoril Moreirense
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) ——
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) ——
Sample size (matches with xG data) 00
Rest days since last match 1516
Matches in the last 7 days 00
Matches in the next 7 days 22
Travel to this match (km) 252309

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).
no season pressing baseline available for these teams
recent form lacks xG samples, so attack/defence form is not measurable

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Estoril

  • injured Fabrício Garcia return: Day to day

Moreirense

  • suspended Maracás return: Late October 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Estoril 8 · 7 7 draws · 8 Moreirense

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-04-20Moreirense 1 - 0Estoril
2025-12-07Estoril 3 - 3Moreirense
2025-05-11Moreirense 2 - 2Estoril
2024-12-28Estoril 2 - 2Moreirense
2024-05-18Moreirense 2 - 1Estoril
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: unavailable Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available