No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Excelsior | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 0.53 | 1.52 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.5 | 1.28 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 2 | 3 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 6 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 0 | 0 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 128 | 79 |
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Excelsior
No reported absentees.
AZ Alkmaar
- injured Jizz Hornkamp return: Day to day
- injured Kees Smit return: About a week
- injured Stije Resink return: Early January 2027
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Excelsior 5 · 9 9 draws · 12 AZ Alkmaar
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Excelsior | 1:2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2026-01-21 | AZ Alkmaar | 1:1 | Excelsior |
| 2024-03-10 | AZ Alkmaar | 4:0 | Excelsior |
| 2023-11-04 | Excelsior | 1:1 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2023-02-10 | AZ Alkmaar | 5:0 | Excelsior |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage