Eredivisie Round 9 2026-10-18 · 14:45 UTC finished
Prediction
28% FC Groningen (home)
31% Draw
41% Ajax (away)
Expected goals 1.38 — 1.68 Over 2.5 goals: 59% Both teams to score: 61%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric FC Groningen Ajax
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) ——
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) ——
Sample size (matches with xG data) 00
Rest days since last match 78
Matches in the last 7 days 11
Matches in the next 7 days 12
Travel to this match (km) 200149

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).
no season pressing baseline available for these teams
recent form lacks xG samples, so attack/defence form is not measurable

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

FC Groningen

  • injured Elvis van der Laan return: Day to day
  • injured Malcolm Jeng return: Day to day
  • injured Nikolas Brandis return: Day to day
  • injured Tyrique Mercera return: Day to day

Ajax

  • injured Anton Gaaei return: Late November 2026
  • injured Caio Henrique return: Day to day
  • injured Daley Blind return: Day to day
  • injured Kasper Dolberg return: Out for season
  • injured Steven Berghuis return: Day to day

Head to head

All-time (per our source): FC Groningen 5 · 4 4 draws · 23 Ajax

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-05-21Ajax 2 - 0FC Groningen
2026-03-07FC Groningen 3 - 1Ajax
2025-12-02Ajax 2 - 0FC Groningen
2025-05-14FC Groningen 2 - 2Ajax
2024-10-06Ajax 3 - 1FC Groningen
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: unavailable Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available