UEFA Champions League Round 3 2026-10-20 · 19:00 UTC finished
FC Porto (home)
VS Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
PSV Eindhoven (away)
Prediction
55% FC Porto (home) Model favorite
20% Draw
25% PSV Eindhoven (away)
Expected goals 1.77 — 1.28 Over 2.5 goals: 59% Both teams to score: 60%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric FC Porto PSV Eindhoven
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) —1.05
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) —1.39
Sample size (matches with xG data) 01
Rest days since last match 63
Matches in the last 7 days 23
Matches in the next 7 days 22
Travel to this match (km) 4791560

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.
no season pressing baseline available for these teams

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

FC Porto

  • injured Vasco Sousa return: Day to day
  • injured William Gomes return: Mid November 2026

PSV Eindhoven

  • injured Adamo Nagalo return: Out for season
  • injured Alassane Pléa return: Early January 2027
  • injured Jerdy Schouten return: Day to day
  • injured Paul Wanner return: Late October 2026
  • injured Ricardo Pepi return: A few days
  • injured Ruben van Bommel return: Mid November 2026
  • injured Sam Lammers return: Day to day

Head to head

All-time (per our source): FC Porto 0 · 0 0 draws · 1 PSV Eindhoven

DateHome ScoreAway
2016-07-21PSV Eindhoven 3 - 0FC Porto
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available