UEFA Champions League Round 4 2026-11-04 · 17:45 UTC scheduled
Prediction
18% Fenerbahçe (home)
16% Draw
66% Liverpool (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 1.09 — 2.43 Over 2.5 goals: 68% Both teams to score: 60%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Fenerbahçe Liverpool
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.071.56
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.481.17
Sample size (matches with xG data) 15
Rest days since last match 153
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) — 9.2
Matches in the last 7 days 02
Matches in the next 7 days 01

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 65.0% of the time.
no head-to-head data available

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Fenerbahçe

No reported absentees.

Liverpool

  • injured Conor Bradley return: Early January 2027
  • injured Dominik Szoboszlai return: Mid November 2026
  • injured Florian Wirtz return: doubtful
  • injured Giovanni Leoni return: Late November 2026
  • injured Hugo Ekitiké return: Early January 2027
  • injured Jeremie Frimpong return: Mid November 2026
  • injured Víctor Muñoz return: doubtful
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: unavailable Pressing baseline: available Season context: available