Serie A Round 9 2026-10-29 · 17:30 UTC scheduled
Frosinone (home)
VS Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone
Lecce (away)
Prediction
52% Frosinone (home) Model favorite
24% Draw
24% Lecce (away)
Expected goals 1.69 — 1.14 Over 2.5 goals: 54% Both teams to score: 55%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Frosinone Lecce
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.81.44
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 2.581.65
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 44
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 7.9 13.1
Matches in the last 7 days 22
Matches in the next 7 days 22
Travel to this match (km) 540434

What the data says

Match data Moderate evidence

Frosinone vs Lecce: what the data says

Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.91 xG for, 2.38 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.64 / 2.01.

FrosinoneLecce
19.8 Shots per match 11.8
2.00 Points per game 1.20
2.00 Goals per match 1.40

What is worth noting before kickoff?

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Frosinone

  • injured Florian Grillitsch return: Early November 2026

Lecce

  • injured Ivan Ilic return: Late November 2026
  • injured Lassana Coulibaly return: Early November 2026
  • injured Medon Berisha return: Early November 2026
  • injured Santiago Pierotti return: Mid November 2026
  • injured Tiago Gabriel return: Early November 2026
  • suspended Kialonda Gaspar return: Late October 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Frosinone 1 · 4 4 draws · 5 Lecce

DateHome ScoreAway
2024-03-03Frosinone 1 - 1Lecce
2023-12-16Lecce 2 - 1Frosinone
2022-04-02Lecce 1 - 0Frosinone
2021-11-20Frosinone 0 - 0Lecce
2021-03-20Frosinone 0 - 3Lecce
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available