Serie A Round 7 2026-10-16 · 18:45 UTC finished
Frosinone (home)
VS Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone
Sassuolo (away)
Prediction
41% Frosinone (home)
28% Draw
31% Sassuolo (away)
Expected goals 1.43 — 1.21 Over 2.5 goals: 49% Both teams to score: 53%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Frosinone Sassuolo
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.631.68
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 2.281.26
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 65
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 7.9 18.1
Matches in the last 7 days 11
Matches in the next 7 days 22
Travel to this match (km) 115406

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Frosinone

  • injured Florian Grillitsch return: Late October 2026

Sassuolo

  • injured Daniel Boloca return: Late October 2026
  • injured Fedde Leysen return: Out for season
  • injured Ismaël Koné return: Late October 2026
  • injured Jay Idzes return: Late October 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Frosinone 2 · 3 3 draws · 6 Sassuolo

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-09-02Sassuolo 1 - 1Frosinone
2025-05-13Sassuolo 0 - 1Frosinone
2024-12-14Frosinone 1 - 2Sassuolo
2024-03-09Sassuolo 1 - 0Frosinone
2023-09-17Frosinone 4 - 2Sassuolo
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available