Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 0.87 | 2.22 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.91 | 2.89 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 4 | 4 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 3 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 16.5 | 10.0 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 489 | 535 |
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Hamburger SV
- injured Albert Sambi Lokonga return: doubtful
- injured Bakery Jatta return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Nicolai Remberg return: Late June 2027
- injured Patson Daka return: A few weeks
- suspended Mario Vušković return: Early November 2026
Stuttgart
- injured Ameen Al Dakhil return: Late October 2026
- injured Dan-Axel Zagadou return: Mid October 2026
- injured Justin Diehl return: Late October 2026
- injured Maximilian Mittelstädt return: About a week
- injured Nikolas Nartey return: About a week
- injured Tiago Tomás return: Late October 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Hamburger SV 7 · 2 2 draws · 14 Stuttgart
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 - 0 | Hamburger SV |
| 2025-11-30 | Hamburger SV | 2 - 1 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2023-06-05 | Hamburger SV | 1 - 3 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2023-06-01 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 - 0 | Hamburger SV |
| 2020-08-26 | Hamburger SV | 2 - 3 | VfB Stuttgart |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage