Premier League Round 8 2026-10-23 · 19:00 UTC finished
Prediction
26% Ipswich (home)
27% Draw
46% Nottingham Forest (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 1.25 — 1.67 Over 2.5 goals: 56% Both teams to score: 58%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Ipswich Nottingham Forest
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.461.95
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 2.281.44
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 65
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 12.6 13.2
Matches in the last 7 days 22
Matches in the next 7 days 11
Travel to this match (km) 275183

What the data says

Match data Moderate evidence

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 1.27 xG for, 2.01 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.89 / 1.29.

IpswichNottingham Forest
1.40 Goals per match 0.60
2.0 Big chances created per match 3.8
11.2 Shots per match 18.0

What is worth noting before kickoff?

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Ipswich

  • injured Jack Taylor return: Back in training
  • injured Saša Lukić return: About a week

Nottingham Forest

  • injured Igor Jesus return: Early November 2026
  • injured Nicolò Savona return: Early November 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Ipswich 4 · 6 6 draws · 11 Nottingham Forest

DateHome ScoreAway
2025-03-15Ipswich Town 2 - 4Nottingham Forest
2025-03-03Nottingham Forest 1 - 1Ipswich Town
2024-11-30Nottingham Forest 1 - 0Ipswich Town
2019-03-16Ipswich Town 1 - 1Nottingham Forest
2018-12-01Nottingham Forest 2 - 0Ipswich Town
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available