Prediction
51%
Jagiellonia Białystok (home)
Model favorite
19%
Draw
30%
Ararat Armenia (away)
Expected goals
2.14 — 1.43
Over 2.5 goals: 69%
Both teams to score: 67%
Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Jagiellonia Białystok | Ararat Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | — | — |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | — | — |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 0 | 0 |
| Rest days since last match | 29 | 29 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 1 |
What could go against this prediction
The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.
no head-to-head data available
no injury / suspension snapshot available for either squad
no season pressing baseline available for these teams
recent form lacks xG samples, so attack/defence form is not measurable
Ask AI about this match
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
available
Recent xG form:
unavailable
Injuries & suspensions:
unavailable
Head to head:
unavailable
Pressing baseline:
unavailable
Season context:
available