Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Le Havre | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.83 | 3.21 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.68 | 1.66 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 5 | 4 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 804 | 171 |
What the data says
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain: what the data says
Home last five: 0.20 points, 1.45 xG for, 1.92 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 3.02 / 1.45.
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Le Havre
- injured Elias Jelert return: Late October 2026
- injured Felix Mambimbi return: Late October 2026
- injured Lionel Mpasi-Nzau return: Late October 2026
- injured Stephan Zagadou return: Early January 2027
- injured Timothée Pembélé return: Late October 2026
Paris Saint Germain
- injured Khvicha Kvaratskhelia return: Out for season
- injured Marquinhos return: A few weeks
- injured Nuno Mendes return: A few weeks
- injured Ousmane Dembélé return: A few weeks
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Le Havre 0 · 1 1 draws · 7 Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Le Havre | 0 - 1 | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-11-22 | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 - 0 | Le Havre |
| 2025-04-19 | Paris Saint-Germain | 2 - 1 | Le Havre |
| 2024-08-16 | Le Havre | 1 - 4 | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2024-04-27 | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 - 3 | Le Havre |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage