UEFA Europa League Round 2 2026-10-15 · 16:45 UTC finished
Prediction
10% Lech Poznań (home)
18% Draw
72% Bayer Leverkusen (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 0.83 — 2.02 Over 2.5 goals: 54% Both teams to score: 49%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Lech Poznań Bayer Leverkusen
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) —2.32
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) —1.32
Sample size (matches with xG data) 05
Rest days since last match 285
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) — 11.7
Matches in the last 7 days 01
Matches in the next 7 days 13

What could go against this prediction

no head-to-head data available

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Lech Poznań

No reported absentees.

Bayer Leverkusen

  • injured Christian Kofane return: A few weeks
  • injured Eliesse Ben Seghir return: About 1-2 weeks
  • injured Guéla Doué return: A few weeks
  • injured Kennet Eichhorn return: Late October 2026
  • injured Montrell Culbreath return: Mid October 2026
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: unavailable Pressing baseline: available Season context: available